search

World Cup predictions: From Paul the Octopus to supercomputer-analysts

World Cup predictions: From Paul the Octopus to supercomputer-analysts

The Peninsula

Billions of football fans around the world are eagerly waiting to see their favorite stars shining at the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, which kicks off on November 20.

Thirty-two of the world’s best footballing nations will vie for honours over a period of 29 days, with just one of them taking the glamorous trophy home at the end of the final on December 18 - the Qatar National Day.

Five-time champions Brazil, four-time winners Germany and maestro Lionel Messi-led Argentina, Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal, and the defending champions France are among the favorites, but a few others including England, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, and Croatia are also among those who are out to challenge the leading contenders.

Predictions will vary depending on whom you may ask, nevertheless, the football world has seen a few notable foretelling throughout the past editions of the prestigious FIFA tournament.

Interestingly, over the past few FIFA tournaments, a few notable characters – mostly animals – entered the fray, producing some of the most fascinating foresight.

Nelly the Elephant, Sijtje the Cow, Cabecao the Turtle, Shaheen the Camel, Archerfish, Khan the White Bengal Tiger, Zabiyaka the Goat, and Achilles the Cat were in the forefront, but none of them stole the limelight like Paul the Octopus.


Paul the Octopus became an unlikely star of the 2010 World Cup when the two-year-old predicted the outcome of eight matches during the Worlds Cup in South Africa.

Paul made its name by succeeding in choosing a mussel from one of two boxes bearing the flags of competing nations.

As the tournament continued, Paul’s mysterious capability of selecting the correct box drew the attention of media around the world. Paul became an instant hero in Spain when it correctly picked Spain as the eventual winner.

Fast forward 12 years, predictions have come a long way since then. But rather than going on a hunch, some predictions have been based on mountains of data and analyses using supercomputers.

Using these data, a new wave of forecasts have emerged ahead of the highly anticipated finale.

The popular video games franchise FIFA, also known as FIFA Football and soon to be known as EA Sports FC from 2023, developed by Electronic Arts under the EA Sports label, has correctly predicted the last three World Cup winners: Spain at South Africa 2010, Germany at Brazil 2014, and France at Russia 2018. Just ahead of the Arab World’s maiden World Cup, FIFA 23 has predicted the Messi-led Argentina as the winner over Neymar’s Brazil in the final this time.

FIFA 23 says they use the groundbreaking “HyperMotion2 Technology” and the dedicated FIFA World Cup 2022 ratings in FIFA World Cup kick-off and tournament modes to simulate all 64 matches and see who will come out on top on December 18 at the Lusail Stadium. EA Sports also predicts the defending champions France as the bronze winners this time.

Meanwhile, a leading sport data producer Opta Analyst has also predicted a South American favorite to prevail at the Qatar 2022 finale.

Opta, who provides data for 30 sports in 70 countries, with clients ranging from leagues to broadcasters, used artificial intelligence to predict the possible routes other teams could take to the final and has predicted Brazil as the winner with around 15.79 percent probability.

According to Opta, Les Bleus have a 12.53 percent chance of defending their title, while Messi’s Argentina falls slightly behind with 11.82 per cent.

Opta’s supercomputer also analysed that winning the Group Stage is critical if a team is to go all the way. 


“More importantly for the tournament is the trend that since the introduction of the round of 16 at the 1986 FIFA World Cup, the subsequent winner of each edition has always finished top of its group at the tournament. That’s right, no second-place side (or third, back in the 24 team-era) has ever gone on to win the World Cup that same year,” theanalyst.com said, adding that the Netherlands – with a probability of 59.3 percent - are most likely to win Group A which also includes hosts Qatar, African champions Senegal and South American qualifiers Ecuador.


Opta Analyst also added that six goals is the most which will be scored by the winner of the Golden Boot in Qatar.

Opta also predicted – despite being one of the favorites – England may not advance beyond the quarters. However, London-based Lloyd’s, the world’s leading marketplace for corporate risk solutions, predicts otherwise.

Lloyd’s has based its predictions on the insurable value of each player.

Lloyd’s research uses wages, sponsorship, age, and position on the pitch to calculate players’ insurable value to make predictions.

Based on this method, Lloyd’s correctly picked the winners in the 2014 and 2018 editions of the FIFA World Cup.

This year, Lloyd’s has named England as the favorite to win.

Lloyd’s valued England at $3.74bn, making them the most valuable team in Qatar 2022. France was second most valuable at $3.14bn and Brazil at $3.02bn.

The real winner will emerge on Sunday, December 18, and the success rate of these predictions will see the light when the Lusail Stadium hosts the grand finale the world has been waiting for.